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"After 3 years of painful underperformance, winter is finally thawing and spring just might be in the air," analyst Cory Kasimov wrote in a Monday note. Biotech stocks broadly peaked in early 2021 when interest rates were at a trough, Kasimov noted. While biotech stocks are sensitive to interest rates, the analyst believes most of the group's other catalysts — such as mergers and access to capital — remain "relatively consistent." XBI YTD mountain SPDR S & P Biotech ETF performance year to date The sector is opportune for investors looking for "a stock picker's market," according to Kasimov. With this in mind, he named seven stocks to his core initial list, which he named "The Magnificent Seven."
Persons: Cory Kasimov, Kasimov, We've, Neurocrine, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: ISI, Biotech, P Biotech, Moderna Locations:
Hedge fund managers gathered Wednesday at the 2024 Sohn Investment Conference in New York to share their best investment ideas. It kicked off with "Next Wave Sohn," a session that features ideas from rising stars within the hedge fund industry. Endocrinology is an $8 billion market, but the cumulative market size, including the company's future therapy targets, is upward of $200 billion, which includes estimates for future obesity drugs, the investor said. It has CA$75 billion market cap with an "unbelievable record of success," according to the investor. The short seller noted that the company has a $5 billion market cap with about $4.8 billion of debt.
Persons: Sohn, Eric Wolff, Wolff, Michelle Ross, Cushing, Ross, Eli Lilly, Crinetics, XBI, Nikhil Daftary, Alimentation, Daftary, Chris Drose, Nate Koppikar, Fahmi Quadir Organizations: Investment, Gumshoe Capital Management Investment, Pason Systems Energy, Pason Systems, Gumshoe Capital Management, StemPoint, Pharmaceuticals, Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, StemPoint Capital, Endocrinology, Novo Nordisk, P Biotech, NK Capital Investment, NK Capital, Starbucks, McDonalds, Bleecker Street Capital, Orso Partners, Justice Department, Federal Trade Commission, Safkhet, Global Education Locations: New York, Canada, U.S
Oracle — Shares added 1.6% ahead of the software giant's fiscal third-quarter earnings report due after the bell. Analysts polled by FactSet are expecting earnings per share of $1.38 and revenue of $13.29 billion. New York Community Bancorp — The regional bank stock dropped 4.8%, extending losses after Friday's more than 6% drop. Moderna — The stock jumped more than 8% in midday trading, putting it on track for its biggest one-day gain since December. Duolingo — Shares rose 3.6% after JPMorgan initiated coverage of the online learning platform with an overweight rating, forecasting "premium" revenue growth that could substantially drive up Duolingo's valuation.
Persons: FactSet, Lam, Coinbase, Microstrategy, Jefferies, Eli Lilly, — CNBC's Michelle Fox, Alex Harring, Yun Li, Tanaya Macheel, Pia Singh Organizations: Oracle, Nvidia, Semiconductor, Lam Research, New York Community Bancorp, Moderna, P Biotech, Xcel Energy, Barclays, JPMorgan, PDD Holdings
Widely followed investor Dan Niles on Tuesday revealed his top stock picks for 2024, including one of 2023's top performers. The founder and senior portfolio manager of the Satori Fund selected two names from the so-called Magnificent Seven mega-cap tech stocks as his favored shares for the new year — Amazon and Meta Platforms . META 1Y mountain Meta shares 1-year chart ETFs The hedge fund investor is also bullish on SPDR S & P Biotech ETF (XBI), which tracks more than 120 biotech companies. The investor said the top holdings in KWEB — Baidu , Alibaba and Tencent — are so much cheaper than mega-cap names in the Magnificent Seven. "You can buy them at 13 times P/E off 24 numbers for comparison, The Magnificent Seven, you're paying 34 times," he said.
Persons: Dan Niles, Satori, Niles, Apple, they're, we've Organizations: Satori Fund, Apple, Barclays, CNBC, Meta, P Biotech, KraneShares CSI China Internet, Baidu
Many biotech stocks struggled in 2023 despite a robust year for U.S. drug approvals. "We expect this environment to continue but look forward to the prospect of lower interest rates in 2024." When that happens, Canaccord Genuity said to expect a "strong rally across the biotech sector rewarding innovative, but riskier assets." Analysts have said the rich price reflects the opportunity for ImmunoGen's Elahere cancer treatment , which has quickly established itself as the standard of care for types of ovarian cancer. 'Oversold and cheap' In a research note Friday, Jefferies analyst Michael Yee said "a significant short squeeze" was helping biotech stocks in the fourth quarter.
Persons: Dan Lyons, Janus Henderson, John Newman, Canaccord Genuity, Janus, Lyons, Bristol Myers Squibb, Karuna, AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly, AbbVie, Jonathan Miller, Miller, bode, Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, BTIG's, Jefferies, Michael Yee, Yee, NASH, Madrigal, we're, David Risinger, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Drug, Federal, Bristol Myers, Karuna Therapeutics, CART, Bristol Myers Squibb, Cerevel Therapeutics, Securities and Exchange Commission, pharma, P Biotech, Nasdaq Biotech, Apogee Therapeutics, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Madrigal, resmetirom, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Leerink Partners Locations: ImmunoGen
Here are the indicators he's watching in 2024, and the trades investors should make now so that when the bull market finally arrives, they will be well-positioned to profit. Bank of America, alongside BMO, believes that the S&P 500 could beat its all-time high and soar over 5,000 next year. But in the back half of 2024, Hartnett believes the "3Cs" and the "3Ps" will combine to kick off a bull market in the "3Bs": bonds, bullion, and breadth. "Bonds can easily deliver equity-like returns in 2024," Hartnett wrote, particularly if "a weaker US economy & Fed cuts delivers cyclical decline in bond yields & US dollar (+ve gold)." Hartnett wrote that any panic policy moves could be a "catalyst for outperformance of leverage over quality, small over large, value over growth, international over US."
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, there's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Business, America's, BMO, SOX Locations: XBD, Japan, China
Citi is so bullish on one biotech firm that it has given its shares a target price that represents around 800% upside. In a Nov. 22 note, Citi gave the stock a buy rating and a price target of $90, representing potential upside of around 818% from Tuesday's price. However, the bank cautioned that the stock is high risk, given the "typical volatility" of biotech stocks and uncertainty associated with clinical trials. According to FactSet, analysts covering the stock give it average price target upside of 385% and a buy rating of 88%. On FactSet, the highest estimate came from Oppenheimer, which gives it potential upside of over 600%.
Persons: , Oppenheimer, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Citi, Citi isn't, BMO Capital Markets, BMO, P Biotech ETF, Biotech Locations: U.S
The firm upgraded shares of the late-stage biotech to buy from hold, lifting its price target to $26 from $18. Shares of Vera Therapeutics have fallen 37.8% this year, but analyst Farzin Haque believes the stock's recent pullback now means an attractive entry point for investors. VERA YTD mountain VERA YTD chart "W/ shares down –30% (vs XBI –13%) since Sept 21 TVTX data release, we have become more optimistic about atacicept (dual BAFF/APRIL) clin profile," Haque wrote. Atacicept, which Vera took over from Merck, is a drug that treats certain autoimmune diseases. "W/ recent increasing focus on eGFR, VERA's OLE data from ph.II for longer-term eGFR data (expected 1Q24) has now become an important catalyst for the stock," Haque said.
Persons: Vera, Jefferies, Vera Therapeutics, Farzin Haque, VERA YTD, VERA, Haque, Lupus nephritis, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Vera, Merck Locations: ph.II
It's not too late for investors to ride along with MoonLake Immunotherapeutics despite the Swiss biotech having more than quadrupled in price this year, according to Stifel. Shares of MoonLake have soared 354% in 2023, but Stifel believes more gains lay ahead. MLTX YTD mountain MLTX YTD chart Analyst Alex Thompson believes MoonLake's sonelokimab drug, which targets diseases in dermatology and rheumatology, could eventually achieve $4.2 billion in U.S. revenue. The next trial readout for the drug is in psoriatic arthritis, with data expected in early November. "We view recent acquisitions in the TYK2 and TL1A space ($4-11B) as supportive of Strategics' interest/willingness to pay premiums in these markets," Stifel noted.
Persons: It's, MoonLake Immunotherapeutics, Stifel, Alex Thompson, we've, Thompson, MoonLake, — CNBC's Michael Bloom
Recent data for cancer treatment manufacturer MorphoSys AG suggests the German biotech's shares could see a significant rally, according to Morgan Stanley. "Despite increasing competition, our updated analysis suggests peak global sales of $1.6bn for pelabresib," analyst James Quigley wrote in a Friday note. "In addition, while some clinical risk remains, the data so far suggests that MANIFEST-2 has a good chance of success, which should drive significant upside in the shares," Quigley said. Shares have sold off nearly 25% since mid-September, compared to the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index down 4% over the same period. MOR XBI YTD mountain MorphoSys vs SPDR S & P Biotech ETF in 2023.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, James Quigley, Quigley, SPDR, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: MorphoSys, pelabresib, Nasdaq, MF, P Biotech
A Monday evening note from Almanac editor Jeffrey Hirsch said that the stock market appears to be in the early stages of an end-of-year rally. SPY YTD mountain The S & P 500 is up since May, but did suffer a late-summer swoon. The buy signal could help offset the multiple negatives working against the stock market, including bond yield volatility and the conflict in the Middle East. The Almanac's portfolio changes show an expectation of a broad market rally. The moves include buying the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) , SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) , and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) as well as the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) .
Persons: Jeffrey Hirsch, SPDR, Russell Organizations: Dow Jones, ETF Trust, Trust, P Biotech, Consumer, Vanguard, Index
Dozens of stocks and ETFs are hitting 52-week lows on the relentless rise in interest rates. Treasury bond ETFs: New lows iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) It's not just Treasury bonds. Broad bond ETFs: New lows Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) iShares Core US Aggregate Bond Fund (AGG) Higher rates are affecting other areas of the U.S. economy: look at clean energy and biotech It's simple. Clean energy ETFs: New lows iShares Global Clean Energy (ICLN) VanEck Low Carbon Energy ETF (SMOG) Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) It's the same story with biotech. The SPDR S & P Biotech ETF (XBI) , which tracks an equal-weighted index of US biotechnology stocks, is at a 52-week low.
Persons: Schwab, It's Organizations: Vanguard Utilities, Treasury Bond ETF, Bond Market, Bond Fund, NextEra Energy Partners, Clean Energy, Carbon Energy, P Biotech, Biotechnology, Biotech, Verizon, SPDR Telecom, AT, Property, Comerica, Huntington Bancshares Locations: U.S, Orsted, Denmark, REITs
Globally, IPOs across all sectors nosedived last year after a blockbuster 2021, as aggressive interest rate hikes by central banks to curb inflation put an end to the era of cheap money. In the biotech sector, there were only 47 IPOs last year that raised a total of about $4 billion, compared with 152 offerings in 2021 that had raised over $25 billion. While the XBI is still trading 50% below its February 2021 closing high, analysts believe the downturn in biotech has bottomed out. All we need is one or two biotech IPOs to get good interest and the floodgates will open." Reuters GraphicsThe second half of 2023 is more likely to see a significant step-up in biotech IPOs instead of the first half, as markets await further clarity on potential rate cuts, analysts said.
Next week is one of the biggest of the year for health-care investors, and it has historically been a good time to own ETFs that track the industry. The 2023 JPMorgan Health Care Conference is set to kick off next Monday in San Francisco. The sector's S & P 500 weight also sits at a 50-year high of 16%. According to a note from Goldman Sachs, health care is now the second-biggest weight in the S & P 500. Merck , Eli Lilly and AbbVie were a few of the stocks with the biggest positive contributions to the S & P 500 last year, according to Goldman.
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect heavy market selling early next year, says Worth Charting's Carter WorthCarter Worth, Worth Charting CEO, joins 'The Exchange' to give the technical take on Eli Lilly and XBI.
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